A short note concerning the ongoing election process in Iraq
Media outlets reporting the Iraqi election view events, as expected, through their own variously tinted glasses. Some are sounding seriously nervous, even hysterical. In spite of these charged and polarised predictions, the final outcome of the Iraqi election will have no effect whatsoever on the situation of the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organisation in Iraq and, according to the law enforcement agencies, which will continue to carrying out their duties no matter who forms the new Parliament, the group will be dismantled as soon as possible.
As far as the election itself is concerned, there are basic realities beyond the media propaganda which will govern the eventual outcome.
1- The overall percentage of votes has no bearing on the outcome of the election process. On a nationwide basis, the fact that one or other of the candidates has fewer or more votes is irrelevant. The voting system works on a provincial basis.
2- No single Coalition, Party or Group has or will have enough members in parliament to be able to form a government. The Election Commission has announced that after 95% of the votes have been counted, the number of seats which will be allocated to each coalition in the parliament is as follows
– State of Law Coalition will occupy 92 seats
– Al Iraqiya will occupy 89 seats
– Iraqi National Alliance will occupy 64 seats
– Kurdistan Alliance will occupy 42 seats
– Accordance list will occupy 6 seats
– Iraq’s Unity Coalition will occupy 3 seats
An alliance to form a government will have to take into account at least the first 4 of these.
In relation to the MKO:
Mr. Maliki has repeatedly made his government’s position against Saddamists and terrorists clear.
Mr. Allawi was the first Prime Minister of Iraq who announced the will of the Iraqi people to expel the Mojahedin-e Khalq Organisation from Iraq.
Mr. Hakim has been an outspoken critic of the delays in expelling terrorists from Iraq.
Mr. Talebani clearly sees the presence of MKO in Iraq as problematic to his people.
The official voting result is expected to be announced on Friday at Hotel Rashid in Baghdad. The ensuing negotiations between different Iraqi statesmen to appoint ministers, etc will likely take more than a few weeks.
Whatever the result of these negotiations, it will be to the benefit of the Iraqi people since all the above coalitions have shown their commitment to democracy and patriotism.
Whatever the result of these negotiations, the emerging government will be a cooperative government whose first priority would be to get rid of insurgency, the remains of the Saddam era terrorists and to stabilise a country torn apart by foreign interference and occupation.
The new government (as all the top officials have already emphasised) will not tolerate a terrorist camp where the families of the victims inside it must sit at the gate and wait, while the terrorist leaders inside refuse to allow even visits between the hostages and their families.
On a side note, it is worth mentioning that Ayad Jamal Aldin, the infamous Washington financed MP who has regularly appeared on Alarabia TV advocating support for the Mojahedin-e Khalq on behalf of the CIA, received fewer than 11 thousand votes in Baghdad (a minimum of 45 thousand is required for election to parliament). This is interesting because another former MP, Saleh Motlaq, was actually disqualified from running in the elections because of his connections with Saddam’s daughter in Jordan and his active support for the Mojahedin-e Khalq terrorist group.
May I wish a Happy New Year to all the families who spent their Norooz by the gates of the camp. I am certain that whatever the result of the election, Iraq’s new government, which will obviously be stronger than ever, will once and for all dismantle the garrison and free the hostages in a very short time.