The Vain Struggle to Keep Ashraf Open

The ground reasons for the closure of Camp Ashraf are more than enough

All the current evidences indicate that the story of MKO is nearing its end in Iraq and closure of its bastion and the consequent expulsion of its insiders from Iraq are unquestionable. And the Rajavis themselves have come to learn the bare fact despite their advocates’ struggle on their behalf. Whatever we see coming out of the organization’s propaganda apparatus drumming up support for the insiders and recognition of their rights is nothing more than a shrewd play by the leaders, with Rajavi at the top, to distract the outsiders from a different episode that is to occur in the future.

The ground reasons for the closure of Camp Ashraf are more than enough to present. The Iraqi Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki, made it clear that the camp had to be closed simultaneous with the exit of the American forces from Iraq. America also left the decision for the group’s future to the Iraqi government. However, under outside pressures and to show its good-will for humanitarian reasons, the Iraqi Government agreed to extend the deadline for another six months, beginning October 2011 to the end of April 2012.

However, a big bulk of MKO’s propaganda machine is still concentrating on the issue of recognizing the rights of Camp Ashraf residents and strives on progress to keep the camp open and active in Iraq. Why is Rajavi on a struggle of securing his organization’s stay in Iraq while he knows the efforts are foiled for certain reasons? Neither the Iraqi political potentiality allows the group to live nor does the organization itself feel safe to survive on the Iraqi soil, especially after the leaving of American forces. An idle organization with many imposed limitations would mean a rapid political and strategic deterioration and structural disintegration. The Iraqi government substituting the fallen dictator totally disappointed MKO’s hope of having a replaced reliable patron.

For clear as well as untold reasons Rajavi can neither continue his organization’s stay on the Iraqi soil nor is Iraq willing to let it on its soil. In fact, further stay in Iraq is tantamount to an idle lingering that guarantees no political and strategic development for the organization. Besides, the heavy investment on some former American personalities and paying them thousands of dollars to speak in MKO’s behalf in the group’s occasionally held luxurious events resulted in much less than the least expectations. Above all, Rajavi came to the reality, particularly after the exit of American forces and handling the control of Ashraf to Iraq itself, that none of the orchestrated squawks and protests against the Iraqi Government and demonization of Nuri al-Maliki to prolong his organization’s stay in Iraq could deter Iraq’s decisiveness to expel the group.

However, MKO has proved to be the untrusted party in any contract, the side that refuses to comply with the other side when there is a dispute to be settled peacefully. It spends big sums to challenge and its tone is hostile and threatening when called to parley. Typically, it is a shock and prepared to strike when you never expect it and double speaks when everything seems resolved and concluded. At least it is what has been going on during the past two months of the arrived agreement to move residents from Ashraf to Temporary Transit Location TTL. The deadline is nearing, less than two months, and still Rajavi is dillydallying. Probably, he is gambling on another trick to disappoint the Iraqi Government; but he has to be also alert to the possibility of a shock he never expects.